This edition of AgriMatters is based on the presentations and discussion which your columnist had with the scientists and researchers at the Wageningen UR during his recent visit to that country. What struck your columnist were the integration of so many disciplines, and the willingness of so many institutions to work together on a project, which has yet to see the light of the day, but clearly holds out the promise for the future. Rather than look at the issues of agriculture from the production and supply side, here is an attempt to understand the demands on this sector from the Gen X, which is moving to urban spaces like never before in human history. Within the next few years, a majority of the world’s population would be living in urban areas, and that will change the entire complexion of food production, distribution and consumption .Rising incomes will also increase the demand for fruits, flowers and meats – all of which will draw precious resources. While the continuous growth of productivity in agriculture will ensure food security at global levels, the dominant debate will be on food miles, the ecological consequences of food production, the impact of climate change on production cycles. Also many of the conventional thoughts on agriculture – its dependence on weather and soils stand overturned, for many perishables are now grown in ‘soil- less’ cultures, in climate controlled conditions with hardly any interface. One just has to visit some of the Green House complexes in Holland, or for that matter even in our own country to understand this. Increasingly, it is these green houses which will supply most of the non cereal requirement of short duration crops ( cherry tomatoes, spring onions, gherkins, cucumbers, radishes, turnips, carrots, eggplants, okra, broccoli etc to the very large urban conglomerations which may house between 70-75% of the world’s population by the 2025. The phenomenon of the growth of big towns becoming bigger, and the smallest villages becoming uninhabited is so visible even in Uttarakhand where Dehradun is recording phenomenally high rates of growth, and reports of farmers abandoning their fields finds empirical verification from the reports emanating from different government departments.
Another factor driving urban growth is the realization in most countries, including India that the ‘million job opportunities’ will come from skill development, and not land based activities. Rural development is no longer tha panacea for all the problems, and if goods and services have to be arranged for people below a certain threshold, it may be easier to do so in larger metropoles, rather than in dispersed and far flung areas. Of course this has other implications – of lands being priced and valued differently, and problems of managing the urban wastes in an ecologically sustainable manner. As waste management in urban areas becomes more professional, it opens the possibility of recycling bio degradable wastes into metropolitan agriculture so that the overall dependence on the rural areas, especially for perishables gets reduced. The other big agenda on the anvil is the ability to meet the meat requirements of this population which also has the resources to purchase more. Metropolitan agriculture also looks to establishing poultry farms, piggery units, and water bodies for fish cultivation along with vegetables in areas around the recycling centres so that optimization can be achieved. At one level, this does sound Orwellian, and AgriMatters is not endorsing this pit of view. What is being placed before the readers is what the larger metropoles in Europe and US are currently thinking.
While this is the dominant tend, the counter factual is also gaining ground. There is an increasing awareness that meat consumption, especially the consumption of red meat does not go with the sedentary lifestyle patterns. As household incomes increase, the top end moves from red meat to white meat (poultry, fish, and sea food) and salad bars show growth rates at par with KFCs. Many municipal governments are encouraging their residents to grow their own flowers and vegetables in the kitchen gardens and community spaces, not just as a hobby, but as integral parts of their food system. Gardening is not just for leisure and pleasure, but also for healthy eating, and as people retires early and has time on their hands, a new generation of urban farmers with just a small garden patch, or even pots and pans are emerging as the new growers. This is often coupled with rain water harvesting structures and non conventional energy systems.
They bring with them several advantages, the most notable among them being that they are into agriculture because they enjoy doing so. So while at one level, there has been both grain drain and brain drain from the country to the metropole, on the other hand, there is increasing realization in the urban areas that they must take some responsibility for producing the products on which they are so critically dependent. In some ways, some of the larger APMC mandis like Azadpur do have landfill sites close to the markets, and Kolkata has pioneered the concept of vegetable growing right on the EM By-pass on landfill areas, the effort needs to be calibrated and made more effective. The Wageningen presentation does point to the urgency, the revenue model, the sustainability and the technologies that can make it possible!